Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +240 MSM -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -6.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -7.7 (+0.7) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -7.2 (+0.2) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.7 (-0.3) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -7.3 (+0.3) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MSM 74 – 69 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 1-12 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#357) | -6.0 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#356) | -0.28 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#354) | -0.73 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#337) | 0.509 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 25.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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