Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | CAN -110 MSM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -1.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -0.8 (+4.2) | 141.8 (-24.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -1.2 (+3.8) | 139.5 (-22.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -1.7 (+3.3) | 141.7 (-24.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -1.1 (+3.9) | 143.2 (-26.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MSM 74 – 69 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#262) | -3.4 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#262) | -1.32 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#266) | -1.32 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#216) | 0.433 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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