Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -175 CAN +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +16 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -2.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.5 (-17.5) | 141.2 (-3.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.8 (-17.8) | 139.4 (-1.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.5 (-17.5) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.5 (-17.5) | 141.6 (-3.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MSM 74 – 69 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#222) | -5.2 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#297) | -0.90 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#282) | -1.12 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#314) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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