Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CAN +142 MSM -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -0.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -0.6 (-10.6) | 132.5 (+13.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.3 (-8.7) | 131.4 (+14.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.5 (-9.5) | 131.5 (+14.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -0.2 (-10.2) | 132.5 (+13.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MSM 74 – 69 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#348) | -10.1 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#264) | -1.49 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#273) | -2.05 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#256) | 0.433 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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