Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -150 UNC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -3.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -4.6 (+3.4) | 155.8 (-9.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.9 (+5.1) | 153.3 (-7.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.7 (+3.3) | 153.9 (-7.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -4.4 (+3.6) | 154.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#36) | 10.8 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#24) | 1.75 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#30) | 2.40 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#37) | 0.585 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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