Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -500 BUF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -10.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -10.4 (+9.6) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.6 (+11.4) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.8 (+10.2) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -9.7 (+10.3) | 149.3 (+2.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#97) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#109) | -0.34 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#120) | -0.47 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#101) | 0.487 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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