Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USU -213 NEV +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USU -4.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -4.2 (+4.8) | 144.7 (-3.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.3 (+4.7) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.9 (+5.1) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.9 (+5.1) | 144.8 (-3.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#39) | 10.5 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#42) | 2.36 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#34) | 2.60 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#20) | 0.625 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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