Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–43 on winners spread MAE 8.8 129 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ Charlotte +7.3 142.8 77% 70–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +4.1 145.1 71% 71–70 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +10.0 158.3 82% 73–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +8.5 151.3 83% 98–91 ✗
Dartmouth @ Yale +16.5 150.5 88% 68–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +10.8 152.2 85% 89–82 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -3.1 157.4 48% 77–90 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -11.6 126.4 17% 88–86 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan +5.3 144.6 77% 90–95 ✓
Harvard @ Brown -2.0 134.1 41% 69–59 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +4.3 150.5 68% 67–72 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State -1.3 146.7 45% 83–71 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +15.1 150.8 87% 71–102 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -2.4 148.9 44% 76–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +7.5 132.8 76% 58–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ VCU +19.6 148.6 91% 75–89 ✓
Boise State @ Grand Canyon +1.3 139.8 49% 69–86 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +11.7 147.7 84% 76–89 ✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech -11.3 147.8 15% 72–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +13.4 136.5 87% 54–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ UCF -2.7 155.2 34% 80–88 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +13.1 136.7 86% 52–63 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +8.2 145.6 79% 71–84 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +9.8 139.6 84% 64–69 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +8.2 152.4 76% 77–64 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest -3.8 155.3 35% 96–78 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +10.7 141.3 83% 55–73 ✓
Campbell @ William & Mary +9.3 156.0 83% 104–96 ✗
Stony Brook @ Elon +3.9 150.2 72% 72–68 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -0.3 146.0 50% 66–71 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State -0.1 142.3 48% 76–72 ✓
Holy Cross @ Army +0.8 143.4 54% 68–69 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.3 147.4 76% 66–71 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +3.2 147.8 69% 66–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +1.1 147.2 56% 71–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +6.4 134.0 70% 65–54 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +2.6 134.9 58% 72–75 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina -3.3 149.7 37% 92–87 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +5.8 177.4 69% 92–77 ✗
Virginia @ Boston College -10.9 139.3 19% 73–66 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -13.3 159.5 13% 87–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -9.5 149.5 22% 91–75 ✓
SMU @ Louisville +7.9 156.7 78% 74–88 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -3.1 148.2 43% 76–77 ✗
Lafayette @ American University +7.6 140.4 77% 67–65 ✗
Fordham @ George Washington +13.7 138.7 87% 79–65 ✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +2.8 155.9 64% 82–92 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -0.2 142.1 49% 97–103 ✗
Radford @ Presbyterian +2.3 149.8 60% 93–84 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -4.6 128.1 28% 74–78 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +6.2 153.5 79% 95–83 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut -0.3 140.7 45% 80–59 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +2.1 127.8 56% 77–91 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -1.8 155.0 38% 89–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +5.2 136.3 73% 60–61 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +4.3 129.6 68% 50–82 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth -1.0 142.7 44% 73–57 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +16.9 151.8 90% 81–95 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +0.4 142.3 57% 64–81 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -3.0 157.6 45% 79–69 ✓
Queens University @ Bellarmine -1.8 158.6 48% 75–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Stetson +3.2 143.6 65% 68–66 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -10.0 159.7 19% 100–94 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.3 136.4 44% 67–58 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -10.0 155.1 19% 71–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -10.9 132.1 14% 79–62 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +12.0 147.6 86% 72–95 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +1.2 159.9 61% 70–61 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss +0.1 145.1 52% 65–73 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +2.5 149.1 62% 79–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +0.5 144.3 54% 68–49 ✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +0.9 129.8 52% 87–77 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Missouri State +2.3 136.8 62% 67–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +17.6 151.5 88% 61–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State -1.0 153.0 45% 69–54 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri +5.4 151.6 72% 79–84 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State -0.3 149.2 48% 79–78 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +9.8 130.2 84% 55–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +4.8 140.5 67% 60–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +2.0 139.0 63% 63–53 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -10.1 144.0 15% 78–70 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State -5.0 145.3 32% 69–66 ✓
California @ Miami +7.1 143.9 76% 86–85 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +11.2 139.3 86% 71–87 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +1.1 154.6 56% 84–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Bryant -1.8 130.9 32% 84–92 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -8.2 145.4 22% 89–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana -1.8 141.8 46% 60–69 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +6.4 157.9 76% 71–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.5 144.2 70% 79–76 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +3.7 141.2 65% 65–60 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech -0.7 138.0 43% 77–87 ✗
BYU @ Kansas +4.2 152.3 70% 82–90 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +4.9 138.7 69% 79–54 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -2.0 149.9 32% 89–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.3 130.7 79% 71–73 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +11.0 137.9 85% 79–77 ✗
App State @ Troy +6.9 139.4 76% 66–44 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas +7.6 151.7 79% 81–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia -7.6 147.3 25% 81–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois -9.8 130.7 16% 84–44 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -1.8 134.3 41% 77–59 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -4.4 147.7 34% 73–78 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -2.9 125.6 31% 57–65 ✗
Indiana @ UCLA +2.3 138.7 65% 98–97 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.8 153.3 25% 80–72 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word -0.6 135.2 44% 106–93 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.5 138.7 68% 54–63 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +2.1 152.9 62% 65–59 ✗
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +1.8 154.6 64% 53–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +0.9 154.6 58% 78–85 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +3.7 136.1 66% 65–72 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +14.6 151.9 86% 68–71 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +2.4 149.2 64% 87–73 ✗
Portland @ Washington State +5.8 146.6 78% 74–104 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego +2.2 148.8 65% 78–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +3.2 145.1 66% 72–86 ✓
Dartmouth @ Brown -0.0 143.2 51% 77–70 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia +8.5 141.6 80% 80–68 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -8.0 154.8 20% 89–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts +4.9 148.3 74% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +4.2 160.3 67% 91–81 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin +13.7 134.2 86% 58–85 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans +4.8 150.3 65% 64–75 ✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M -0.9 143.0 52% 72–68 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah -2.4 161.6 41% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Florida State +0.1 150.1 52% 80–88 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure -3.5 141.6 33% 77–73 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +6.4 159.9 71% 85–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.