← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

80–37 on winners spread MAE 9.4 117 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Yale @ Pennsylvania	-4.2	142.6	35%	64–66	✗
Harvard @ Columbia	-8.4	132.7	22%	83–65	✓
Brown @ Princeton	+7.6	139.5	75%	67–78	✓
Canisius @ Rider	+9.1	141.5	80%	81–78	✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's	+1.0	122.9	54%	66–70	✓
Fairfield @ Marist	-0.6	124.1	48%	70–61	✓
Manhattan @ Iona	+19.9	142.6	96%	60–71	✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago	-8.6	129.1	22%	65–49	✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State	+3.2	149.8	62%	68–85	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+1.8	130.0	56%	63–50	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	-0.2	159.9	49%	96–74	✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena	+2.7	141.8	60%	66–63	✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah	+9.0	162.7	79%	71–81	✓
Air Force @ Wyoming	+3.1	133.1	61%	75–69	✗
New Mexico @ San José State	-0.3	146.4	49%	96–68	✓
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon	+7.6	143.6	76%	84–94	✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia	+15.5	129.6	92%	55–57	✓
Illinois @ Indiana	+4.7	144.8	67%	68–71	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+12.3	132.7	87%	55–64	✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia	+7.3	145.9	75%	78–72	✗
Boston College @ Florida State	+3.1	142.4	61%	75–69	✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin	-2.4	118.6	41%	58–57	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga	+0.7	137.1	53%	93–76	✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern	+4.8	137.5	67%	57–69	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson	+5.7	143.8	70%	75–76	✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky	-5.7	132.5	30%	54–66	✗
Bucknell @ Boston University	+4.4	135.8	65%	61–77	✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire	+0.6	137.9	52%	66–75	✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell	+13.2	143.4	88%	70–84	✓
South Carolina @ LSU	+9.8	130.5	81%	82–73	✗
Samford @ VMI	-11.2	147.5	16%	96–61	✓
Wofford @ The Citadel	-1.6	146.0	44%	72–68	✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut	+2.9	130.1	60%	90–94	✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University	-5.7	151.9	30%	93–82	✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss	+11.2	136.0	85%	62–73	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas	+11.5	140.7	85%	83–85	✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State	+2.2	133.6	58%	55–61	✓
Wake Forest @ Miami	+8.0	161.5	77%	87–96	✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU	+4.7	135.8	66%	75–100	✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate	+17.9	145.3	95%	73–96	✓
Lehigh @ American University	+5.9	134.4	70%	62–59	✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State	+15.4	145.4	92%	64–80	✓
UAlbany @ Maine	+10.4	140.1	83%	72–74	✓
Florida @ Arkansas	+6.8	137.5	73%	65–84	✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island	+2.8	141.1	60%	69–45	✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell	+9.5	128.3	81%	57–74	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	+4.1	138.7	65%	71–68	✗
Ohio @ Central Michigan	-6.6	143.6	27%	76–59	✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart	+4.9	128.5	67%	67–55	✗
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	-0.3	137.4	49%	78–75	✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+26.2	145.0	99%	65–95	✓
Elon @ Monmouth	-1.2	134.2	46%	75–68	✓
Queens University @ Kennesaw State	+8.3	156.7	77%	83–76	✗
Fordham @ VCU	+8.4	134.5	78%	61–80	✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan	-7.2	147.0	26%	68–78	✗
Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech	+1.9	128.8	57%	74–67	✗
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin	+11.4	135.3	85%	75–70	✗
Radford @ Longwood	+3.9	128.6	64%	63–73	✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+3.6	133.8	63%	63–75	✓
Georgia State @ Arkansas State	+0.0	124.6	50%	70–75	✓
South Dakota @ Denver	+5.6	147.5	69%	68–86	✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State	+8.7	129.3	79%	58–71	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+2.6	149.2	59%	72–50	✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss	-3.4	120.7	38%	69–61	✓
Baylor @ Kansas	+4.1	152.2	64%	71–87	✓
DePaul @ Xavier	+16.9	162.3	94%	68–82	✓
Howard @ Coppin State	-3.6	161.6	37%	80–70	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+10.7	151.0	83%	62–78	✓
Southern @ Grambling	+2.3	136.5	58%	64–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State	+2.1	146.0	58%	75–60	✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	-9.7	137.5	19%	66–58	✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State	+6.0	128.3	71%	69–66	✗
Evansville @ Murray State	+12.2	142.5	87%	58–74	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy	+12.5	132.3	87%	53–65	✓
UAB @ UTSA	-14.3	158.7	10%	83–78	✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State	+10.7	146.3	83%	50–72	✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls	+12.6	143.5	87%	74–84	✓
La Salle @ George Mason	+7.9	136.7	76%	66–70	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point	+1.2	148.1	54%	66–81	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner	+5.2	143.9	68%	66–48	✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama	+12.0	132.3	86%	45–81	✓
Old Dominion @ App State	+2.6	126.5	59%	74–63	✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech	+1.4	152.3	55%	100–91	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware	-0.6	133.4	48%	66–75	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Towson	+13.1	142.9	88%	75–87	✓
Drexel @ Hampton	-7.1	134.0	26%	72–75	✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine	+9.1	149.2	80%	76–78	✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay	-1.1	145.7	46%	71–73	✗
Villanova @ Providence	+7.3	140.5	75%	72–85	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State	+17.1	152.9	94%	68–65	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese	-6.1	146.6	29%	77–54	✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois	+7.7	149.2	76%	66–65	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	-0.3	144.7	49%	85–100	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock	+5.1	149.0	68%	77–81	✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	+3.2	144.4	61%	72–79	✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State	+0.1	132.1	50%	60–57	✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green	-7.5	166.2	25%	91–86	✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State	+4.0	160.5	64%	80–85	✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+10.3	155.5	83%	77–89	✓
SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M	+1.4	148.0	55%	78–76	✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern	+0.6	153.2	52%	75–67	✗
Georgia @ Alabama	+23.1	151.4	98%	59–108	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern	+11.1	137.8	84%	62–80	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	+8.5	144.1	78%	56–90	✓
Lafayette @ Army	+4.5	131.5	66%	43–53	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	+1.5	134.5	55%	59–67	✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee	+9.5	144.2	81%	58–69	✓
Duke @ Syracuse	-2.2	137.1	42%	77–55	✓
Yale @ Princeton	-1.6	140.7	44%	93–83	✓
Harvard @ Cornell	+7.7	151.4	76%	73–56	✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania	+4.8	141.6	67%	69–90	✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri	+0.6	156.7	52%	69–60	✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville State	-10.8	127.7	16%	79–55	✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.4	144.6	62%	88–84	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M	+7.7	134.8	76%	71–82	✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State	+7.5	126.3	75%	60–54	✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook	-11.9	132.2	14%	68–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.