I want the bomb, I want the P-Funk, I want my funk uncut. "P-Funk (Wants to Get Funked Up)" - Parliament
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–15 on winners spread MAE 8.4 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ SMU -20.2 132.2 3% 80–65 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee -5.2 143.8 32% 70–74 ✗
Wichita State @ Temple +4.6 134.2 66% 79–65 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech -2.7 120.7 40% 72–62 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Charlotte +6.4 128.3 72% 64–68 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +5.3 137.5 68% 63–54 ✗
Long Island University @ Stonehill +14.6 139.5 91% 60–75 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +4.2 161.1 65% 86–94 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +1.2 122.6 54% 57–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +10.0 141.3 82% 67–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +14.6 145.7 91% 83–84 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +1.4 139.0 55% 68–77 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +10.7 161.9 83% 58–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +16.5 125.8 93% 56–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel +2.3 122.7 58% 72–71 ✗
Charleston @ Elon -14.0 146.6 10% 88–66 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook +1.5 129.6 56% 66–71 ✓
Hampton @ Hofstra +21.0 146.4 97% 43–73 ✓
Delaware @ Towson +7.6 135.7 76% 72–95 ✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern +9.8 134.6 81% 62–77 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -5.5 135.4 31% 81–88 ✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville State +0.1 146.4 50% 69–76 ✓
Merrimack @ Hartford -6.5 119.1 28% 67–59 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +3.4 139.9 62% 70–57 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +14.7 160.3 91% 58–74 ✓
UCF @ Memphis +4.1 148.0 64% 63–64 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +3.0 138.0 61% 67–59 ✗
UTSA @ Rice +13.7 158.5 89% 84–79 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +1.5 151.2 55% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ Lamar +3.8 152.9 63% 75–91 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama -1.7 137.4 44% 54–85 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +13.7 144.7 89% 67–84 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +22.4 154.6 98% 70–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +1.5 134.0 56% 69–58 ✗
South Dakota @ Omaha +4.3 145.1 65% 72–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +9.7 148.3 81% 64–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay -1.4 120.3 45% 60–56 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +8.8 152.2 79% 114–111 ✗
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +5.5 138.2 69% 76–78 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State -6.9 128.0 27% 67–62 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock -0.9 161.8 47% 82–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Diego -14.9 141.5 9% 62–59 ✓
UAB @ UTEP -5.7 145.7 30% 79–66 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ East Texas A&M +10.7 147.6 84% 84–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +9.3 152.4 80% 76–81 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +4.6 159.5 66% 75–92 ✓
Santa Clara @ BYU +5.6 147.4 69% 81–74 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -3.1 144.6 39% 80–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +1.3 148.4 55% 84–90 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +4.4 136.6 66% 64–74 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +7.2 139.0 74% 68–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho +1.4 154.2 55% 82–84 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.7 150.9 83% 55–72 ✓
Utah @ Arizona +8.8 151.6 79% 62–88 ✓
California @ USC +16.6 129.4 93% 60–97 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State +2.4 127.3 59% 52–49 ✗
Idaho State @ Portland State +5.0 150.8 67% 70–79 ✓
Stanford @ UCLA +16.1 131.8 93% 64–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -5.3 157.9 31% 108–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington State +12.4 119.6 87% 62–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific -1.4 156.0 45% 76–68 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +14.3 157.7 90% 83–95 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +21.5 147.3 97% 54–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.