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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–20 on winners spread MAE 8.8 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.7 142.5 63% 59–68 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -17.3 127.7 6% 61–58 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +6.3 168.3 72% 68–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ East Carolina -7.7 140.8 24% 71–75 ✗
Boston University @ Holy Cross -0.8 135.4 47% 69–71 ✗
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -1.9 120.3 43% 70–73 ✗
Army @ Colgate +12.1 151.2 86% 86–93 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -7.0 139.4 26% 70–77 ✗
Florida State @ Clemson +11.9 146.8 86% 54–94 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +4.4 136.0 65% 67–86 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +11.3 128.7 85% 51–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +2.8 158.7 60% 85–71 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany -5.9 148.7 30% 74–81 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -2.2 139.2 42% 75–64 ✓
VCU @ Rhode Island -5.6 131.8 31% 55–54 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +5.1 132.7 68% 63–78 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +8.9 145.2 79% 62–76 ✓
Richmond @ La Salle -0.4 137.5 48% 62–68 ✗
George Mason @ George Washington +0.4 148.9 51% 66–53 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -3.8 132.6 37% 67–72 ✗
High Point @ Presbyterian +1.1 142.6 54% 71–69 ✗
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb +9.2 136.1 80% 86–78 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +5.6 144.3 69% 51–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -8.2 147.9 23% 78–58 ✓
Furman @ The Citadel -12.8 150.5 12% 65–69 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina +3.5 140.0 62% 66–68 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +4.3 140.4 65% 67–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +16.4 147.4 93% 81–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson +3.6 144.6 63% 72–75 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +18.8 145.3 96% 63–95 ✓
Tarleton State @ Stephen F. Austin +7.6 140.0 75% 60–65 ✓
UT Arlington @ Sam Houston +16.6 125.2 93% 56–66 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +1.8 135.9 57% 71–83 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa -5.2 148.4 32% 96–69 ✓
Indiana State @ UIC -9.6 148.9 19% 79–60 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State +2.1 140.4 57% 76–75 ✗
Missouri State @ Bradley +10.3 123.9 83% 54–64 ✓
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +3.8 126.7 64% 71–68 ✗
Indiana @ Northwestern +0.3 134.1 51% 62–64 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +4.5 130.8 66% 59–70 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -5.4 138.4 31% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +1.9 141.9 57% 56–62 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Louis +6.5 146.0 72% 65–78 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon +13.0 150.7 88% 77–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +13.7 138.4 89% 62–73 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State -4.5 137.1 34% 80–78 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +1.6 130.3 56% 63–84 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +2.8 156.0 60% 76–88 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +2.5 114.5 59% 70–62 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego -4.9 130.0 33% 76–73 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara +2.8 138.2 60% 70–59 ✗
San Diego State @ Fresno State -8.8 128.4 21% 45–43 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -2.9 141.8 40% 71–72 ✗
Saint Francis @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.7 139.9 53% 72–64 ✗
Purdue @ Maryland -0.7 130.7 47% 54–68 ✗
Texas State @ App State +4.6 121.2 66% 75–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.