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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Creighton
@
Providence
|
-0.6 | 144.4 | 48% | 86–94 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Syracuse
|
-1.7 | 149.3 | 44% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Southern Illinois
@
Valparaiso
|
-5.1 | 129.5 | 32% | 66–62 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Duke
|
+15.4 | 136.6 | 92% | 64–68 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Penn State
|
-0.8 | 143.5 | 47% | 81–93 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Auburn
|
+6.6 | 154.3 | 72% | 56–89 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Massachusetts
|
+7.9 | 145.0 | 76% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-8.4 | 147.6 | 22% | 78–51 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Toledo
|
+16.6 | 163.7 | 93% | 71–89 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ball State
|
+9.6 | 144.2 | 81% | 77–87 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+6.9 | 143.6 | 73% | 77–74 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Ohio
|
+5.9 | 162.3 | 70% | 61–85 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Western Michigan
|
-12.9 | 139.4 | 12% | 82–58 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+5.9 | 127.9 | 71% | 50–62 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Rutgers
|
+13.9 | 123.5 | 90% | 82–72 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Georgia
|
+4.9 | 134.5 | 67% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
+0.4 | 137.0 | 51% | 87–76 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
-1.6 | 140.7 | 44% | 65–79 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Pittsburgh
|
+13.5 | 136.4 | 89% | 58–77 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
DePaul
|
-1.0 | 158.4 | 46% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.2 | 132.6 | 58% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Utah State
|
+12.8 | 141.3 | 88% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
New Mexico
|
+14.6 | 154.4 | 91% | 70–56 | ✗ |
San José State
@
UNLV
|
+5.7 | 139.0 | 70% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Florida
|
+10.1 | 132.8 | 82% | 64–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.