Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–34 on winners spread MAE 8.3 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Louis +10.0 159.9 80% 75–88 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona +1.8 140.9 58% 64–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield +4.5 149.1 68% 68–78 ✓
Princeton @ Brown +0.0 131.9 50% 71–80 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +2.7 147.9 65% 86–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +5.3 152.3 71% 73–68 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +4.7 129.9 67% 63–76 ✓
Canisius @ Rider -0.3 129.9 42% 72–66 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan -6.9 135.3 27% 84–70 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +11.4 150.2 85% 64–93 ✓
Siena @ Merrimack +3.1 130.1 68% 72–79 ✓
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +9.7 149.2 83% 77–91 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -10.8 145.2 16% 94–75 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +11.9 150.6 87% 52–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +12.9 140.7 87% 67–100 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +10.1 137.2 86% 61–75 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte +7.5 144.5 77% 56–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +7.2 132.9 77% 61–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +3.8 148.7 69% 63–82 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +9.6 143.2 82% 70–65 ✗
Cincinnati @ Kansas +10.4 134.7 85% 84–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -2.8 150.6 36% 77–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +10.6 144.7 84% 79–92 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +9.0 138.7 80% 62–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -8.0 148.9 22% 81–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -2.3 139.6 37% 93–72 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -2.1 135.1 36% 54–67 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -0.3 148.8 46% 75–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +6.2 142.1 75% 74–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +1.8 147.1 56% 89–97 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +5.8 155.1 72% 75–80 ✓
Navy @ Army -8.3 137.7 18% 81–63 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +16.4 143.9 90% 64–87 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +7.4 142.3 76% 83–86 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +4.3 149.4 69% 69–65 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +5.9 148.4 71% 66–78 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -0.3 128.9 48% 59–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +0.5 136.6 51% 68–73 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +9.3 147.8 83% 98–101 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +5.9 146.0 73% 64–63 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +17.2 144.2 91% 59–95 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State -3.7 137.0 31% 51–70 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +4.0 151.5 68% 73–54 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +11.1 150.1 86% 70–74 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -2.2 148.0 37% 65–56 ✓
Long Island University @ Mercyhurst -3.0 133.5 34% 83–91 ✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill -3.0 131.3 34% 68–77 ✗
Hofstra @ Northeastern -8.5 143.0 20% 82–68 ✓
Samford @ Mercer +3.6 148.3 65% 86–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast -2.2 150.7 41% 71–75 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +3.4 137.8 68% 53–80 ✓
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee +7.8 138.6 78% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +20.5 159.4 91% 70–87 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +13.8 152.6 88% 72–100 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -3.4 132.2 36% 46–59 ✗
Arizona @ Houston +1.8 137.0 57% 73–66 ✗
Valparaiso @ UIC +7.3 137.1 76% 71–67 ✗
Washington @ Maryland -4.4 140.0 33% 60–64 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -11.5 147.7 14% 91–66 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +7.3 145.2 79% 83–91 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -3.5 143.6 34% 74–66 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -13.1 161.5 14% 102–94 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +1.9 144.1 62% 81–86 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +9.3 157.3 83% 84–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -3.7 135.4 35% 66–54 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida International +4.4 148.2 69% 67–70 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Colorado +2.2 159.5 64% 69–83 ✓
Texas @ Georgia +4.2 162.5 66% 80–91 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +3.5 156.8 63% 71–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +9.2 140.6 83% 78–82 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -1.3 138.7 44% 80–65 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +11.7 162.7 86% 86–94 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +13.1 151.5 87% 75–88 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +9.8 138.1 85% 71–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Baylor +5.3 154.4 69% 68–73 ✓
Oregon @ USC +7.3 146.8 78% 71–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +8.8 157.6 80% 87–89 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern +4.0 150.9 66% 107–96 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +13.3 145.7 87% 69–84 ✓
Boston College @ SMU +15.8 145.6 88% 70–94 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +1.7 135.0 55% 61–58 ✗
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.2 138.4 72% 63–74 ✓
Hampton @ Stony Brook +5.2 132.8 70% 72–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -1.8 144.3 39% 73–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro -6.7 148.7 27% 87–75 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama +1.0 145.5 55% 54–65 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock -2.5 137.7 39% 70–65 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +0.1 144.5 46% 57–72 ✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.4 135.7 68% 83–87 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +8.5 146.4 81% 94–73 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +3.3 144.1 66% 73–74 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State -4.6 128.8 31% 65–71 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ SE Louisiana -5.5 131.8 27% 96–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +1.7 130.0 58% 53–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -8.0 141.1 22% 81–59 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois +4.2 132.6 66% 70–68 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +1.4 146.4 56% 65–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +5.0 136.1 71% 68–82 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU +5.0 132.4 68% 54–60 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +2.3 145.1 62% 70–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo +5.6 141.4 72% 75–94 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside -2.4 143.8 41% 78–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +5.7 146.8 76% 67–55 ✗
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.1 140.8 58% 80–72 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +4.5 144.5 70% 55–58 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +1.2 135.7 56% 74–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +11.8 147.2 87% 51–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +0.7 140.0 52% 73–63 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.4 138.7 69% 76–85 ✓
Alabama @ LSU -4.1 168.9 30% 90–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +6.9 134.2 75% 59–57 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego +0.0 147.1 52% 77–65 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +4.5 145.1 69% 94–99 ✓
Temple @ Wichita State +9.4 141.3 81% 57–69 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +2.4 138.7 63% 73–87 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -0.5 138.2 48% 74–83 ✗
Stanford @ California +3.7 146.6 69% 66–72 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -2.6 158.8 38% 80–82 ✗
Buffalo @ Massachusetts +3.4 153.3 66% 86–82 ✗
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin +14.1 142.9 88% 78–81 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +1.1 138.6 54% 82–73 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State -1.6 140.3 43% 76–91 ✗
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +6.0 133.7 72% 47–51 ✓
Michigan @ Duke +0.5 145.1 47% 63–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.6 153.9 61% 82–84 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -0.6 138.8 48% 63–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.