Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +114 JMU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -1.6 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -1.4 (-13.6) | 138.8 (+6.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.3 (-13.7) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -1.1 (-13.9) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.1 (-13.9) | 141.3 (+3.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#293) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#277) | -0.18 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#279) | -0.42 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#305) | 0.511 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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