Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -265 GAST +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -6.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -5.9 (-3.9) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -5.3 (-3.3) | 138.2 (+21.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -5.3 (-3.3) | 139.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -5.7 (-3.7) | 140.6 (+19.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#227) | -7.8 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#214) | -1.17 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#219) | -1.43 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#192) | 0.437 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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