Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +300 JMU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -6.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -5.7 (-1.3) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -6.6 (-0.4) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -5.9 (-1.1) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.0 (-1.0) | 144.3 (+20.7) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#317) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#294) | 0.39 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#302) | 0.50 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#265) | 0.545 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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