Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +333 JMU -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -8.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -8.1 (+2.1) | 151.4 (+10.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -8.6 (+2.6) | 150.3 (+11.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -8.1 (+2.1) | 147.1 (+14.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -7.4 (+1.4) | 149.4 (+12.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#206) | 9.6 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#243) | 2.01 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#237) | 2.23 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#209) | 0.559 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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