Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -800 GAST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -9.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -11.6 (+8.4) | 146.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -8.3 (+11.7) | 146.5 (-0.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -8.8 (+11.2) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -9.6 (+10.4) | 146.5 (-0.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#152) | -6.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | -0.89 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#124) | -1.31 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#56) | 0.462 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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