Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -1600 GAST +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -14.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -14.2 (+5.8) | 155.4 (-9.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -15.4 (+4.6) | 154.7 (-8.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -14.3 (+5.7) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -14.1 (+5.9) | 152.7 (-6.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JMU 80 – 65 GAST |
| Feb 13, 2026 | JMU 81 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | JMU 83 – 63 GAST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | JMU 86 – 79 GAST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | JMU 84 – 78 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#57) | -1.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#43) | -0.69 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#57) | -0.72 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#87) | 0.466 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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