Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +145 UMES -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -6.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -3.4 (+9.4) | 129.4 (+6.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UMES -3.1 (+9.1) | 128.0 (+8.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UMES -4.6 (+10.6) | 128.8 (+7.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -4.0 (+10.0) | 125.8 (+10.2) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UMES 70 – 67 COPP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UMES 72 – 59 COPP |
| Feb 4, 2025 | COPP 62 – 57 UMES |
| Feb 20, 2024 | UMES 75 – 67 COPP |
| Jan 9, 2024 | COPP 58 – 55 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 3-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -22.4 (#364) | -13.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#354) | -2.50 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#358) | -3.34 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#340) | 0.400 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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