Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | COPP +143 UMES -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | COPP -1.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -0.5 (+3.5) | 128.8 (-15.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -0.8 (+3.8) | 129.9 (-16.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -1.0 (+4.0) | 129.7 (-16.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -0.3 (+3.3) | 128.9 (-15.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | COPP 71 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UMES 70 – 67 COPP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UMES 72 – 59 COPP |
| Feb 4, 2025 | COPP 62 – 57 UMES |
| Feb 20, 2024 | UMES 75 – 67 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-27 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Home | 2-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-17 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.9 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#358) | -13.8 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.24 (#357) | -1.45 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.80 (#351) | -2.11 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#358) | 0.426 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.49 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 60.1% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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