Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -300 COPP +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -7.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -4.4 (+3.6) | 127.3 (+14.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -5.6 (+2.4) | 127.0 (+15.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -4.7 (+3.3) | 126.2 (+15.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -4.5 (+3.5) | 125.1 (+16.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | COPP 71 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UMES 70 – 67 COPP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UMES 72 – 59 COPP |
| Feb 4, 2025 | COPP 62 – 57 UMES |
| Jan 9, 2024 | COPP 58 – 55 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 1-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 2-8 |
| Away | 0-15 | 0-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 57.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#346) | -17.9 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#346) | -3.40 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#344) | -3.80 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#360) | 0.335 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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