Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -192 XAV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -6.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -5.2 (-0.2) | 156.3 (-1.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -5.8 (-0.8) | 155.1 (-0.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -4.9 (+0.1) | 156.0 (-1.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -5.7 (-0.7) | 157.9 (-2.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BUT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BUT |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BUT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BUT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BUT 72 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#71) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#83) | 1.10 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#83) | 1.66 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#145) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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