Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +150 XAV -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -1.2 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.2 (-12.8) | 151.7 (+17.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.0 (-13.0) | 151.8 (+17.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.4 (-12.6) | 150.6 (+18.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.4 (-12.6) | 152.8 (+16.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BTLR 72 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#70) | 12.7 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#119) | 1.82 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#92) | 2.43 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#160) | 0.560 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.