Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +105 BTLR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -3.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -3.5 (+17.5) | 157.5 (+6.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.1 (+15.1) | 156.6 (+7.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -2.6 (+16.6) | 153.7 (+10.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.5 (+16.5) | 153.8 (+10.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BTLR 72 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#109) | 11.5 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#98) | 1.45 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#93) | 2.01 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#101) | 0.542 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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