Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -320 BTLR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -6.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -6.6 (+6.4) | 152.1 (-13.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.5 (+6.5) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.5 (+6.5) | 151.6 (-12.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.3 (+6.7) | 153.3 (-14.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BTLR 72 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#49) | 8.2 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#60) | 0.61 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#56) | 1.18 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#86) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 11.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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