Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BUT +115 XAV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -0.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -1.9 (-2.1) | 146.6 (+1.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.1 (-3.9) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -0.1 (-4.1) | 149.3 (-1.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.6 (-3.4) | 149.4 (-1.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BUT 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BUT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BUT |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BUT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BUT 72 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#59) | 9.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#69) | 1.06 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#69) | 1.74 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#111) | 0.540 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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