Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -133 XAV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -2.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -3.0 (+3.0) | 152.9 (-14.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.1 (+4.9) | 151.9 (-13.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -3.2 (+2.8) | 150.7 (-12.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -3.3 (+2.7) | 151.6 (-13.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#58) | 9.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#73) | 1.14 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#74) | 1.84 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#118) | 0.549 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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