Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -360 SUU +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +4 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -6.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -5.7 (-1.7) | 137.0 (+33.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -4.4 (-0.4) | 135.7 (+34.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.6 (-0.6) | 137.2 (+32.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.7 (-0.7) | 137.3 (+32.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SUU 74 – 52 ACU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ACU 75 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ACU 84 – 70 SUU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | ACU 77 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#240) | -8.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#205) | -0.85 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#203) | -1.01 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#215) | 0.449 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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