Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -320 SUU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -6.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.9 (+11.1) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -4.5 (+11.5) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -5.3 (+10.7) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.9 (+11.1) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ACU 87 – 83 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SUU 74 – 52 ACU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ACU 84 – 70 SUU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | ACU 77 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#237) | -7.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | -1.18 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#204) | -1.43 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#243) | 0.428 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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