Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SUU +145 ACU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -4.8 (+26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -5.6 (+27.6) | 142.8 (-16.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -5.4 (+27.4) | 140.8 (-14.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -4.5 (+26.5) | 143.6 (-17.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -4.7 (+26.7) | 143.8 (-17.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ACU 87 – 83 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ACU 75 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ACU 84 – 70 SUU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | ACU 77 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#336) | -4.3 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#322) | 0.07 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#337) | -0.16 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#337) | 0.522 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 41.2% |
Game Analysis
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