Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SUU -138 ACU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -3.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -2.5 (-11.5) | 150.1 (-5.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -2.5 (-11.5) | 149.4 (-4.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.8 (-10.8) | 148.7 (-3.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.8 (-10.8) | 149.6 (-4.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ACU 87 – 83 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SUU 74 – 52 ACU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ACU 75 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ACU 84 – 70 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#235) | -4.1 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#282) | -0.40 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#257) | -0.49 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#295) | 0.464 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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