Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +125 ACU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -2.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -0.8 (-14.8) | 135.7 (+18.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.2 (-15.2) | 135.2 (+18.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.3 (-15.3) | 134.6 (+19.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -0.5 (-14.5) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ACU 87 – 83 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SUU 74 – 52 ACU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ACU 75 – 59 SUU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | ACU 77 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#273) | -6.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#259) | -1.00 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#267) | -0.84 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#280) | 0.451 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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