Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -1050 NCCU +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +33 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -14.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -12.4 (+20.6) | 141.9 (+25.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -12.6 (+20.4) | 139.6 (+27.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -12.9 (+20.1) | 140.7 (+26.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -12.2 (+20.8) | 141.3 (+25.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOW 90 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#220) | -15.1 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#258) | -2.38 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#261) | -3.22 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#245) | 0.421 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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