Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -125 NCCU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -2.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -0.9 (+3.1) | 156.8 (+3.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.1 (+2.9) | 152.0 (+8.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.5 (+2.5) | 157.1 (+2.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.7 (+2.3) | 158.1 (+1.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOW 90 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#302) | -7.9 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#299) | -1.54 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#304) | -2.24 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#284) | 0.426 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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