Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU -165 HOW +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.6 (+3.4) | 152.7 (-12.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -1.7 (+2.3) | 149.1 (-9.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -0.3 (+3.7) | 153.4 (-13.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -0.6 (+3.4) | 153.9 (-13.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOW 90 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#317) | -8.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#333) | -1.38 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#347) | -1.94 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#322) | 0.464 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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