Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -1000 NCCU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -13.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -14.2 (-7.2) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -11.8 (-4.8) | 140.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -12.6 (-5.6) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -12.2 (-5.2) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOW 90 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | -15.4 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#238) | -2.24 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#238) | -3.05 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#190) | 0.449 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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