Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +130 HOW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -3.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.9 (-11.1) | 132.8 (+19.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.7 (-11.3) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -2.7 (-11.3) | 136.8 (+15.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.5 (-11.5) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HOW 90 – 82 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#342) | -6.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#335) | -0.97 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#336) | -1.46 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#286) | 0.449 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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