Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -163 NCCU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -2.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.3 (+8.3) | 143.2 (+28.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.4 (+6.6) | 141.5 (+30.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.6 (+7.4) | 141.5 (+30.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.8 (+7.2) | 142.2 (+29.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#274) | -5.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#298) | -0.84 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#290) | -1.07 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#303) | 0.450 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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