Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MASS -360 BUF +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +4 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -4.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -4.4 (-8.4) | 150.9 (+17.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -3.4 (-7.4) | 153.3 (+14.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -3.5 (-7.5) | 154.5 (+13.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -2.9 (-6.9) | 154.6 (+13.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MASS 68 – 67 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#176) | -1.8 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#168) | -0.17 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#173) | -0.10 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.503 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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