Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE +150 MICH -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -3.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.8 (+4.2) | 145.5 (-14.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -0.5 (+4.5) | 145.1 (-14.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.8 (+4.2) | 145.1 (-14.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.7 (+4.3) | 147.5 (-16.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 19-1 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 87.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 27.2 (#2) | 30.6 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#3) | 5.18 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.13 (#2) | 6.84 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#2) | 0.689 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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