Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Duke Blue Devils
68 63
FINAL Neutral Edward Jones Capital Showcase
Michigan Wolverines
Capital One Arena (Neutral) · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MICH -3.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money DUKE +150 / MICH -180
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUKE win
Actual DUKE +5 131 Won
Massey MICH -3.4 (+8.4)
Massey Totals 152.8 (-21.8)
Bradley-Terry 36%
Weighted B-T 33%
Efficiency Plus ML DUKE -0.8 (+4.2) 145.5 (-14.5) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML DUKE -0.5 (+4.5) 145.1 (-14.1) 47%
Baseline ML DUKE -0.8 (+4.2) 145.1 (-14.1) 47%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -0.7 (+4.3) 147.5 (-16.5) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUKE MICH
Overall 35-3 37-3
Conference 17-1 19-1
Home 15-0 14-1
Away 10-1 11-0
Neutral 10-2 12-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 W6
Avg Pts For 81.6 87.3
Avg Pts Against 63.6 69.5
Massey 27.2 (#2) 30.6 (#1)
Bradley-Terry 4.59 (#3) 5.18 (#1)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.13 (#2) 6.84 (#1)
RPI 0.673 (#2) 0.689 (#1)
Shooting & Four Factors DUKE MICH
FG% 50.1% 51.4%
3PT% 34.9% 36.1%
REB / G 39.6 41.5
OREB / G 11.8 11.6
AST / TO 1.58 1.60
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.8% 59.0%
TOV% 15.9% 16.6%
ORB% 36.8% 36.9%
FT Rate 27.1% 29.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.2% 43.2%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 16.5%
DRB% 74.6% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 15.7% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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