Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Atlantic Coast Conference · JMA Wireless Dome · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SYR -2.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money SYR -142 / UNC +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total SYR win
Actual UNC +13 141 Lost
Massey UNC -4.8 (-8.2)
Massey Totals 153.6 (-12.6)
Bradley-Terry 25%
Weighted B-T 26%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -3.4 (-9.6) 147.9 (-6.9) 35%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -2.8 (-10.2) 150.6 (-9.6) 36%
Baseline ML UNC -2.8 (-10.2) 149.7 (-8.7) 39%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -2.6 (-10.4) 149.5 (-8.5) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2026 UNC 8777 SYR
Feb 15, 2025 UNC 8882 SYR
Feb 14, 2024 SYR 8679 UNC
Jan 13, 2024 UNC 10367 SYR
Jan 25, 2023 UNC 7268 SYR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SYR UNC
Overall 15-17 24-9
Conference 6-12 12-6
Home 12-6 18-0
Away 2-7 4-6
Neutral 1-4 2-3
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L6 L3
Avg Pts For 75.0 79.7
Avg Pts Against 74.2 71.6
Massey 8.5 (#73) 16.3 (#29)
Bradley-Terry 1.45 (#70) 3.05 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.91 (#68) 3.51 (#26)
RPI 0.546 (#82) 0.640 (#11)
Shooting & Four Factors SYR UNC
FG% 47.1% 47.0%
3PT% 33.4% 33.5%
REB / G 34.8 38.8
OREB / G 10.6 11.3
AST / TO 1.17 1.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 54.1%
TOV% 16.1% 13.6%
ORB% 30.0% 32.5%
FT Rate 23.4% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 13.7%
DRB% 66.5% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.4% 16.9%

Game Analysis

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