Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SYR +320 UNC -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -7.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.9 (-1.1) | 158.7 (+11.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.9 (-1.1) | 157.7 (+12.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -5.3 (-0.7) | 158.4 (+11.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.6 (-0.4) | 158.8 (+11.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
| Jan 25, 2023 | UNC 72 – 68 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#131) | 12.3 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#146) | 1.92 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#129) | 2.42 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#148) | 0.603 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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