Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SYR +280 UNC -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -9.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.6 (+14.6) | 152.4 (+12.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.4 (+12.4) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.3 (+13.3) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.4 (+13.4) | 152.7 (+12.3) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
| Jan 25, 2023 | UNC 72 – 68 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | 17.7 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#58) | 2.81 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#60) | 3.87 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#40) | 0.628 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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