Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -800 SYR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +36 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.4 (+23.6) | 152.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.2 (+23.8) | 147.4 (+22.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.7 (+24.3) | 146.6 (+23.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.9 (+24.1) | 150.2 (+19.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 25, 2023 | UNC 72 – 68 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#11) | 7.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#10) | 1.96 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#4) | 2.39 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#8) | 0.630 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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