Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -750 SYR +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.0 (-3.0) | 151.2 (+12.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.6 (-2.6) | 153.2 (+10.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.4 (-1.4) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.2 (-1.2) | 152.1 (+11.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
| Jan 25, 2023 | UNC 72 – 68 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#28) | 8.9 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#20) | 1.08 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#25) | 1.67 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#12) | 0.532 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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