Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SYR +155 UNC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.0 (-3.0) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.3 (-2.7) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.3 (-2.7) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.7 (-2.3) | 151.7 (-11.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#97) | 11.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#95) | 2.20 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#88) | 2.90 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#99) | 0.614 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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