Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -142 HCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +18 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -2.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.7 (+16.3) | 130.0 (-6.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -2.0 (+16.0) | 130.6 (-6.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -1.6 (+16.4) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -2.1 (+15.9) | 131.6 (-7.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 15, 2024 | NWST 69 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 8-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#284) | -7.3 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#316) | -1.52 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#315) | -1.94 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#332) | 0.421 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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