Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -150 HCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.0 (+4.0) | 146.6 (-13.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -2.2 (+2.8) | 145.6 (-12.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -1.2 (+3.8) | 149.0 (-16.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -0.4 (+4.6) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 84.8 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#351) | -13.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#356) | -2.63 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.69 (#351) | -3.10 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#352) | 0.403 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 22.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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