Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -190 HCU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -5.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -4.0 (+1.0) | 130.6 (-13.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -4.0 (+1.0) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -3.9 (+1.1) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -4.5 (+0.5) | 131.4 (-14.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 15, 2024 | NWST 69 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#234) | -6.3 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#230) | -1.25 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#223) | -1.30 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#223) | 0.453 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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